Polymarket is haram, and so is Kalshi. Both platforms let you buy a Yes or No share on whether an event will happen, pay $1 for every winning share when the event resolves, and leave the losing side with nothing. That is a wager on an uncertain outcome, which Islamic law calls maysir and the Qur'an forbids in the same breath as intoxicants. The fact that your counterparty is another trader rather than a house, that the fee on some markets is zero, or that the platform describes itself as an information market does not change the ruling. For a New Zealand Muslim the answer belongs on our is it halal hub: no, and the law here adds its own warnings about using offshore sites.
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How Polymarket actually works, from its own documentation
Polymarket's help centre, in an article updated on 2 May 2026, describes the mechanics plainly. You trade on the outcome of a future event, such as whether a law will pass or a team will win. Shares in each outcome are priced between 0.00 and 1.00, and every pair of Yes and No shares is fully collateralised by $1.00 in USDC, a US dollar stablecoin. When the market resolves, each share in the correct outcome pays out $1.00 USDC and the other side becomes worthless. The counterparty to every trade is another Polymarket user, not the platform, and you can sell your shares before the outcome is known to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The fee page is just as clear. Polymarket charges a taker fee on certain markets using the formula fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 - p), where C is the number of shares and p the price. The fee rate is 0.07 for crypto markets, 0.05 for sports, economics, culture and weather, 0.04 for politics, finance, tech and mentions, and 0 for geopolitics and world events. Makers never pay. On a crypto market the fee peaks at $1.75 per 100 shares at a 50 cent price and falls toward zero at either extreme. There are no Polymarket fees to deposit or withdraw USDC, though intermediaries such as Coinbase or MoonPay may charge their own. None of this changes what you are buying, which is a claim that only exists to settle a bet.
How Kalshi differs, and why the difference does not matter here
Kalshi's help centre states that it is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market, the same legal category as a futures exchange. It sells what it calls event contracts, again resolved as Yes or No, and says it makes money by charging a transaction fee on the expected earnings of the contract rather than by taking positions. Its own risk statement reads: members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. When we checked, Kalshi's homepage displayed its markets with a pays-out multiple beside each probability, in the format a bookmaker uses, alongside a new perpetual futures product on a US 500 equity index.
Kalshi says you can trade from many countries, subject to its Member Agreement, with identity verification and confirmation of your country of residence at sign-up. International users may deposit by Visa or Mastercard debit card, by wire transfer with a $1,000 minimum, or in cryptocurrency, and may withdraw by debit card or crypto. US regulation changes Kalshi's legal character in the United States. It does not change the Shariah character of the contract, which is identical to Polymarket's: a stake, an uncertain event, and a transfer of the whole stake from loser to winner.
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| What you buy | Yes or No share priced 0.00 to 1.00 | Yes or No event contract |
| What a winning position pays | $1.00 USDC per share | Contract settles in favour of the correct side |
| Counterparty | Another Polymarket user | Exchange model, matched with other members |
| Fees | Taker fee by category, 0 on geopolitics | Transaction fee on expected earnings |
| Funding | USDC stablecoin | Debit card, wire, crypto for international users |
| Regulator stated on site | None named on the pages we read | US CFTC, as a Designated Contract Market |
What maysir is, and how it differs from the risk in ordinary trade
Maysir, also called qimar, is a contract in which money changes hands purely because an uncertain event turned out one way rather than the other. Each party puts up a stake, one takes the other's stake, and nothing of value is produced or exchanged in between. Qur'an 5:90 and 5:91 prohibit it, describe it as the work of Satan, and name its harm: enmity between people and distraction from prayer. Classical jurists across the schools defined gambling by the structure of the contract, not by the presence of a bookmaker. Two people betting each other on a horse race are gambling even though neither is a house.
Trade carries risk too, so the line needs stating. When you buy a share in a company you own a piece of a real business, you bear the risk that it loses value, and you profit if it earns more. Risk is attached to an asset you own. In a prediction market there is no asset. The share is a synthetic claim created by two people disagreeing about an outcome and collateralising their disagreement with $1. The entire stake moves from the wrong side to the right side at resolution, which is the precise definition of a wager. Our guide to halal investing in New Zealand describes what permitted risk-taking looks like.
The five arguments people make, and why none of them works
- It is an information market, not a casino: the motive for creating a market does not change the contract the user signs, and the user's contract is a stake on an outcome.
- I am not betting against the house: a peer-to-peer wager is still a wager; the prohibition in fiqh never depended on a bookmaker existing.
- There is zero edge, or the fee is zero on geopolitics markets: the fee is a side issue; the prohibition is on the stake itself, and a free wager is still a wager.
- I am hedging: hedging a real exposure is a separate question, and a retail user with no underlying exposure to the event is simply betting; even genuine protection needs the cooperative form, which is what takaful is.
- It is skill, not chance: forecasting skill does not remove the chance element; the Department of Internal Affairs definition of gambling requires only an element of chance, and so does the fiqh definition.
There is one further line of reasoning worth taking seriously, because it comes from people who understand Islamic finance. It says that a Yes share is like a salam or an option, a contract with a known price and a deferred delivery. The analogy fails on delivery. In a salam the seller must deliver goods. In a prediction market nobody delivers anything; the losing side's collateral is transferred. The contract has no subject matter other than the event, and a contract whose only subject matter is an uncertain event is the textbook case of gharar combined with maysir.
What New Zealand law says: the Gambling Act 2003 and the 2026 online casino regime
The Department of Internal Affairs page on prohibited gambling explains that gambling in New Zealand is illegal unless authorised by or under the Gambling Act 2003, and that section 9(2)(b) specifically prohibits remote interactive gambling, defined as gambling by a person at a distance by interaction through a communication device. To be gambling, the participant must pay something to participate and there must be an element of chance in order to win money or a prize. The DIA then says something that matters for this question: the prohibition is on remote interactive gambling conducted in New Zealand, and gambling conducted overseas is not prohibited, apart from betting on racing and sporting events. In practice, it is not illegal for someone in New Zealand to participate in gambling over the internet on a website based overseas.
Two qualifications follow. First, the Racing Industry Act 2020 reserves racing and sports betting for TAB NZ, and the DIA states that any other company offering those bets to people in New Zealand is breaking the law in this country. Polymarket and Kalshi both run sports categories, so a sports market on either is in a different legal position from a politics market. Second, the DIA warns that an overseas site offers you only the protections of its host country's legal system, and that the Act carries fines of up to $10,000 for individuals who participate in unauthorised gambling and up to $10,000 under section 16 for advertising overseas gambling, which is worth remembering before sharing a referral link.
The regime is also moving. The DIA's gambling page states that online casino gambling is now regulated by the Online Casino Gambling Act 2026, that regulations have been released, and that implementation is being phased in and is not expected to be fully operational until 2027, with licences to be awarded through a competitive process. Whether a prediction market would be treated as an online casino under that Act is not stated on the DIA pages we read, so treat the legal status of these platforms in New Zealand as unsettled rather than cleared.
What Inland Revenue does and does not say about winnings
We found no IRD page that sets out a specific rule for prediction-market winnings, so what follows is IRD's general framework. Its page on income under ordinary tax rules says an amount is income if it comes from a business, from a profit-making scheme, or from personal property acquired for the purpose of disposal, and lists shares, gold and cryptoassets as examples of that last category. A one-off win is unlikely to fall within those words. A systematic trading activity with a plan and a profit motive looks far more like a profit-making scheme, and IRD says a generalised plan is all that is needed. If you are unsure, IRD's advice is to speak to a tax professional.
The funding leg is the part people miss. Polymarket runs on USDC, and IRD treats cryptoassets as property. Its cryptoasset pages say that exchanging one cryptoasset for another, using cryptoassets to pay for anything, and giving them away are all disposals, and that profits are taxable where the assets were acquired for the purpose of disposal. Buying USDC to fund an account and converting it back later creates records you must keep for seven years, with every transaction valued in New Zealand dollars. Our companion piece on zakat on crypto in New Zealand explains the IRD record rules in full, and the permissibility verdict on crypto itself covers the stablecoin question.
If you have already won money on one of these platforms
Close the position, withdraw, and separate the money into two parts. Your original deposit is yours; it was never anyone else's. The net gain is the proceeds of a wager, and the dominant scholarly view is that it cannot be kept or consumed. It should be given away to a charitable cause without expecting reward, in the same manner as interest received on a bank account, a process described step by step in our interest purification guide. If you lost money, there is nothing to purify, and no tax deduction to claim either; the loss belongs to an activity that was never permitted.
Where the same impulse can go instead
People who enjoy prediction markets usually enjoy two things: forming a view on the world and being proved right. Both are permitted. What is not permitted is staking money on the view. If you want your conviction about a company or a sector to carry a financial consequence, buy screened shares in it and hold them, which puts an owned asset between you and the outcome. The Zoya screener will tell you whether a particular listed company passes a Shariah screen before you buy it through a New Zealand broker, and the broad investing hub sets out the routes that exist for a New Zealand resident, including the screened ETFs available through Hatch and Sharesies.
Verdict: who should do what
If you are curious and have not opened an account, do not. The contract is maysir on its face, the DIA says you are using a site outside New Zealand's consumer protections, and the funding route adds IRD bookkeeping you do not need. If you already hold positions, exit them, withdraw your deposit, give away the net winnings, and keep the exchange statements for seven years because the USDC leg is a taxable disposal in IRD's framework. If you were drawn in by the sports markets, note that the DIA treats offshore sports betting offered to New Zealanders as unlawful on the operator's side regardless of the Shariah ruling.
If your interest is forecasting rather than money, keep forecasting and stop staking. If it is money, put it into something you can own. Facts checked against docs.polymarket.com, help.kalshi.com, kalshi.com, dia.govt.nz, ird.govt.nz on 17 September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket halal or haram?
Haram. A Polymarket share is a stake on whether an event happens, collateralised by $1 USDC per pair of Yes and No shares, and the whole stake passes from the wrong side to the right side at resolution. That is maysir. The peer-to-peer structure, the low fees and the information-market framing do not alter the nature of the contract.
Is Kalshi haram even though it is regulated by the CFTC?
Yes. CFTC regulation makes Kalshi a lawful exchange in the United States and gives its event contracts a legal classification. It does not change what a user does, which is pay to enter a Yes or No position that wins or loses on an uncertain event. Kalshi's own disclaimer says members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees.
Is zero-edge gambling halal if there is no house taking a cut?
No. The prohibition on maysir is on the wager, not on the bookmaker's margin. Two friends betting each other with no house involved are still gambling under every school of fiqh. Polymarket's zero fee on geopolitics markets removes the platform's cut, which is a commercial detail; the stake, the chance element and the transfer of the loser's money all remain.
Is it legal to use Polymarket or Kalshi from New Zealand?
The DIA states that the Gambling Act 2003 prohibition on remote interactive gambling applies to gambling conducted in New Zealand, and that it is not illegal for a person here to use an overseas gambling website, apart from racing and sports betting, which only TAB NZ may offer to New Zealanders. The Online Casino Gambling Act 2026 is now being implemented, and whether it will capture prediction markets is not stated on DIA's pages.
Do I pay tax on prediction market winnings in New Zealand?
IRD publishes no specific rule for these winnings on the pages we checked. Under its general rules an amount is income if it comes from a business, a profit-making scheme or property acquired for disposal, so regular, planned trading may be taxable while a one-off win may not. Separately, buying and converting USDC is a cryptoasset disposal that IRD expects you to record in NZD and keep for seven years.
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What should I do with money I already won on Polymarket?
Withdraw it, keep your original deposit, and give away the net gain to charity without expecting reward. This follows the same purification method scholars apply to bank interest. Do not use the gain for your own expenses or for zakat, which must come from clean wealth. Keep the transaction history for IRD because the stablecoin conversion is a recorded disposal.
